OCTOBER 2023 BUILDING MATERIAL MARKET REFLECTION

Despite a stronger than expected U.S. Housing report, October saw a slow grind downward in commodity prices, Mills dug their heels in only looking at small counters to move items that were building up. Buyers continued with their cautious “only buy as needed “approach hoping to see lower prices.

www.census.gov/construction/nrc/current/index.html

www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-data/data-tables/housing-market-data/monthly-housing-starts-construction-data-tables

The Owl – New home construction in Alberta highest in 16 years (atb.com)

Downward pressure continued all month with 2×4 and 2×6 trying to hold its ground and 2×8, 2×10 pricing seeing a larger discount. 2×4 (-5%) and 2×6 (-6%) and 2×8 (-11%) and 2×10 (-9%). Studs followed a similar path 2×4 (-7%) and 2×6 (-8%) and 9’ trims 2×4 (-9%), 2×6 (-9%). Mills seemed able to get enough orders to keep the price slide to a minimum.

OSB finally found its bottom and bounced up in price to end the month. Low inventories in both the U.S. and Canada saw buyers scrambling to get product. Even with the bounce it finished down (-15%) for the month. Mills were able to stretch order files into mid-December.

With strong takeaway from the Eastern Canadian Market plywood finished up (+4%), Mills have been able to create an order file into December so expect this upward momentum to continue.

Truss orders remained steady with schedules looking solid for the upcoming month. Winter weather in some regions may have an impact as we head going forward. EWP lead time issues are starting to come back in line which is good news.

The supply chain in all other product lines continue to run smoothly. Planned production shutdowns are starting to pop up in some product lines like insulation and pocket door kits causing slight delays.

Looking Through the Crystal Ball

As we approach the winter months, buyers continue to proceed with caution anticipating some seasonal slowdowns, leading many to speculate production curtailment may be on the horizon. With the market close to being in balance any production curtailments should firm up the pricing and extend mill order files. It currently feels like we will remain in a narrow trading range for the foreseeable future.

FRAMING LUMBER

Pricing continued to grind lower ending with marginal changes on most items. Expect lumber to be trading in a narrow range going forward.

OSB

Found its bottom and saw a bounce up in price as low inventories in the field pushed buyers into the market. Still very little cash wood available. Mill order files are reaching out to mid December.

PLYWOOD

Led buy a strong Eastern Canadian market plywood saw gains for the month as mills were able to build order files into December. Expect this upward momentum to continue.

OCTOBER 27, 2023 LUMBER MARKET REPORT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Framing lumber has increased pace in recent weeks.
• Western S-P-F sales started to strengthen throughout the week.
• The futures market increased in lumber on Thursday.
• Stud lumbers decreased slightly from last weeks price levels.

OCTOBER 27, 2023 PANEL MARKET REPORT HIGHLIGHTS:

• OSB mills sales increased in the last half of the week.
• Buyers replenished inventory with small volumes with concerns about the economy.
• Western plywood mills saw price erosion in recent weeks.
• Canadian plywood sales extended to the last week of November.

*All Pricing is in CAD