JULY 2023 BUILDING MATERIAL MARKET REFLECTION
The strong market conditions we saw in June continued into the first two weeks of July. But as the month closes the markets seem to have topped out. Mills that were curtailed have come back online, and forest fires are currently under control, giving some added supply and downward price pressure.
New Residential Construction Press Release (census.gov)
Monthly Housing Starts and Other Construction Data Tables | CMHC (cmhc-schl.gc.ca)
Lumber prices showed some modest follow through from last month’s run-in pricing. 2×4 (+4%) and 2×6 (-1%) and 2×8 (+7%) and 2×10 (+7%). Studs were also up slightly (+3%) on 2×4 with 2×6 remaining flat (0%). Mill order files are two weeks or sooner on most items.
OSB continued its surge. Showing increases of (+25%-33%). Pricing seems to be topping out as we head into August. But with mill order files pushing into September, we might not see price concessions until later in the month.
Plywood prices showed some follow through in July up (+10%), But the market feels softer heading into August. Mill order files are dwindling so we can expect a retreat in pricing in August as demand seems to be slowing.
Truss orders continue to come in at a decent pace. We have heard of some EWP supply issues hitting some markets with extended lead times on orders.
The supply chain continues to be particularly good in most products, outside of the odd logistical issue most products are arriving on the scheduled delivery dates. We have seen some delays on hardware products due to the Port strike in B.C. With that being resolve it may take a couple of weeks for supply to catch up.
Looking Through the Crystal Ball
With mill production coming back online after their shutdowns and forest fires currently under control. The factors that initially caused the market to run last month seem to be the same factors that are causing some softness as we head into August, could we retreat to April / May levels? With interest rates continuing to rise all the above factors are seeing buyers move forward with a cautious approach. There is a bearish tone to the market as we head into the 3rd and 4th quarters of the year, as some worry that inflationary pressures are finally gripping most of North America.
FRAMING LUMBER
Lumber prices saw modest gains in July. As the month comes to an end there is a softer tone as demand has waned and added production has come back on the market.
| R/L | JULY 28, 2023 | JUNE 30, 2023 | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2×4 | $581 | $557 | 4 |
| 2×6 | $567 | $570 | -1 |
| 2×8 | $565 | $530 | 7 |
| 2×10 | $596 | $557 | 7 |
| 2×12 | $811 | $849 | -4 |
| STUDS | JULY 28, 2023 | JUNE 30, 2023 | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2×4 – 92 5/8“ | $567 | $554 | 2 |
| 2×4 – 104 5/8“ | $617 | $601 | 3 |
| 2×6 – 92 5/8“ | $455 | $457 | 0 |
| 2×6 4/8“ | $706 | $716 | -1 |
OSB
Prices continued its surge through July. As the month closes it does feel like pricing has topped out, but with strong order files into September it may be a few weeks before we see any price concessions.
| OSB | JULY 28, 2023 | JUNE 30, 2023 | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3/8″ | $750 | $500 | 33 |
| 7/16″ | $750 | $500 | 33 |
| 15/32″ | $770 | $520 | 32 |
| 19/32″ | $905 | $665 | 27 |
| 23/32″ | $1,035 | $785 | 24 |
PLYWOOD
Showed strong gains in July but it also feels like it has peaked heading into August. Mill order files are dwindling so expect pricing to retreat in the next month.
| PLYWOOD (STD) | JULY 28, 2023 | JUNE 30, 2023 | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5 (3/8) | $654 | $594 | 10 |
| 12.5 (1/2) | $872 | $792 | 10 |
| 15.5 (5/8) | $1,090 | $990 | 10 |
| 18.5 (3/4) | $1,308 | $1,188 | 10 |
| 25.5 | $1,974 | $1,794 | 10 |
Framing Lumber Composite Price
JULY 28, 2023 LUMBER MARKET REPORT HIGHLIGHTS:
- Framing lumber sales stalled in most categories across North America.
- Wester S-P-F trading declined throughout the week to react to recent purchases.
- The futures contract continued to decline as the September contract fell.
- Stud lumber prices softened as supply became more readily available.
| This Week | Last Week | Year Ago | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FRAMING LUMBER COMPOSITE PRICE | $611 | $616 | $832 |
| 2×4 #2&BTR KD Western S-P-F | $581 | $592 | $821 |
| 2×6 #2&BTR KD Western S-P-F | $567 | $585 | $680 |
| 2x4x9′ Studs | $653 | $662 | $883 |
| 2x6x9′ Studs | $772 | $776 | $992 |
| 2×10 #2&BTR KD Western S-P-F | $743 | $741 | $1,098 |
2020-2023 FRAMING LUMBER COMPOSITE PRICE
Structural Panel Composite Price
JULY 28, 2023 PANEL MARKET REPORT HIGHLIGHTS:
- OSB offerings were restricted due to order files.
- Buyers show less urgency as prices approach pre-pandemic records.
- Western plywood sees prices stabilizing and activity slowing.
- The slower pace last week carried over.
| This Week | Last Week | Year Ago | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ORIENTED STRAND COMPOSITE | $764 | $739 | $643 |
| 3/8″ 4×8 OSB | $750 | $735 | $575 |
| 23/32″ 4×8 OSB T&G | 1,035 | $1,020 | $930 |
| 3/8″ 4×8 Spruce Plywood | $654 | $654 | $749 |
2020-2023 ORIENTED STRAND BOARD COMPOSITE PRICE
*All Pricing is in CAD