FEBRUARY 2024 BUILDING MATERIAL MARKET REFLECTION

February showcased a resilient market, maintaining stability despite minor fluctuations in select sectors. Savvy buyers are seizing the opportunity to explore their options, whether it’s seeking out better deals or a more suitable fit for their immediate needs. While some may attribute the cautious approach as seasonal, there’s a sense that the market is gearing up for an upward trajectory, as promising signs were seen in the last week of the month. For industry professionals, this presents an opportunity to position themselves favourably looking ahead.

Canada Housing Starts (tradingeconomics.com)

New Residential Construction Press Release (census.gov)

Alberta Wildfire warns of extreme fire risk heading into spring 2024 | Watch (msn.com)

A strong finish to the month saw lumber start to move upward. 2×4 (+3%) and 2×6 (+5%) with wide’s 2×8 (+2%) and 2×10 (+10%). Mills have extended order files to mid to end of March and increased asking levels. Studs followed dimensional lumbers direction. 2×4-92 5/8” (+1%) and 2×6- 92 5/8” (+1%) and 2×4-104 5/8 (+5%), 2×6-104 5/8” (2%).

OSB has found its bottom and like lumber price levels started to push upward as the month came to a close. Mills have extended order files into mid-April. OSB Finished up (+3%) for the month, and I would expect this upward trend to continue.

Plywood continues to surge upward in price. Mills have been able to take order files into late March. Plywood saw the biggest price gains month over month up (+16%)

We are starting to see inquiry and jobs have begun to ramp up on EWP order files as we head into the spring season. Supply continues to remain in good stead.

We continue to see very few supply chain issues on the manufacturing side, delays on the odd shipment due to transportation and weather conditions. One issue of note is on Rockwool insulation where production delays have caused orders to push out into May delivery.

Looking Through the Crystal Ball

Several underlying factors may transform the usual spring run into a more substantial event. Field inventories are reportedly underbought, mill log decks are low due to an unseasonably warm winter, and the potential for an early forest fire season adds to the complexity. Moreover, a considerable amount of production has been withdrawn from the market due to mill curtailments and closures.

FRAMING LUMBER

Increased market activity the last week of the month allowed mills to increase their order files into late mid to late March. There are many factors in place and if they line up, we could equal a substantial run in the lumber market.

OSB

Found a bottom in February, and like lumber saw some upward momentum to finish off the month. Supply remains tight and mills are reporting order files into mid to late April, so we can expect pricing to remain firm heading into March.

PLYWOOD

Pricing continues to surge upward, with mills extending order files into late March, early April. Creating a solid plywood market heading into the spring.

MARCH 01, 2024 LUMBER MARKET REPORT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Framing lumber species maintained consistent recent trends, experiencing slight price increases.
• In Western S-P-F, increased demand and limited supply enabled mills to maintain control over pricing.
• Lumber futures contracts continued recent course until Friday, when prices surged.
• Stud prices jumped as demand rose and supplies remained limited in certain species.

MARCH 01, 2024 PANEL MARKET REPORT HIGHLIGHTS:

• OSB price increases sped up as demand overtook supplies, producers accumulated biggest price escalation since last summer.
• Most mills withdrew from the market by Friday due to prolonged order backlogs.
• Western plywood saw sales disruptions in CD due to weather, increased shipment of CCX to Canada compensated.
• Canadian plywood prices continue to rise, with producers raising quotes more assertively.

*All Pricing is in CAD