DECEMBER 2023 BUILDING MATERIAL MARKET REFLECTION
In December, the building materials markets remained relatively stagnant as buyers watched from the sidelines, making purchases only as needed, while mills held prices, relying on their existing order files. The scenario shifted in the final week before the Christmas holidays, spurred by positive U.S. housing starts data for November. This prompted buyers to enter the market to fulfill January needs. Consequently, mills extended order files and raised prices as we entered the New Year.
New Residential Construction Press Release (census.gov)
Canada Housing Starts (tradingeconomics.com)
Consumer confidence surged in December (lbmjournal.com)
The late month market rally pushed pricing higher on all random length lumber, 2×4 (+5%) and 2×6 (+10%) with wides 2×8 (+11%) and 2×10 (+7%). Mills pushed order files into late January, Studs continued to lag behind dimensional lumber with little price change. 2×4-92 5/8” (0%) and 2×6- 92 5/8” (-3%) and 2×4-104 5/8 (0%), 2×6-104 5/8” (-6%).
OSB remained unchanged for the month. Supply continues to remain tight, product available outside of contracts is difficult to source, cash continues to trade at a premium to contracts. Finishing (+1%) for the month. Mills reported they were able to stretch order files into February so expect pricing to continue to hold or push upwards.
Plywood was also flat for December (0%). Mills have order files into mid-January. It feels like this could be the bottom for plywood with more upside than downside risk on pricing.
Even with new orders slowing down a bit due to the holidays our truss order files remain solid heading into the New Year. Supply of most EWP products remain good, outside of the one or two suppliers dealing with some extended lead time.
The supply chain continues to perform well in most product lines. We are seeing some extended lead times and delays on offshore products due to the time of year.
Looking Through the Crystal Ball
As we head into 2024, everyone will be closely watching how downward pressure on interest rates will impact the housing market. Market perception and consumer confidence are key; stable interest rates and a positive economic outlook can boost confidence among buyers, sellers, and investors.
FRAMING LUMBER
Strong U.S. Housing start numbers rallied the market and pushed prices up, extending mill order files into late January on most items.
| R/L | DECEMBER 28, 2023 | NOVEMBER 30, 2023 | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2×4 | $581 | $554 | 5 |
| 2×6 | $521 | $475 | 10 |
| 2×8 | $541 | $486 | 11 |
| 2×10 | $495 | $462 | 7 |
| 2×12 | $640 | $652 | -2 |
| STUDS | DECEMBER 28, 2023 | NOVEMBER 30, 2023 | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2×4 – 92 5/8“ | $455 | $455 | 0 |
| 2×4 – 104 5/8“ | $499 | $500 | 0 |
| 2×6 – 92 5/8“ | $363 | $374 | -3 |
| 2×6 4/8“ | $508 | $541 | -6 |
OSB
Pricing was stagnant for the month with no movement. With reported order files into February expect prices to hold or go up from here.
| OSB | DECEMBER 28, 2023 | NOVEMBER 30, 2023 | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3/8″ | $570 | $565 | 1 |
| 7/16″ | $570 | $565 | 1 |
| 15/32″ | $590 | $585 | 1 |
| 19/32″ | $695 | $690 | 1 |
| 23/32″ | $820 | $815 | 1 |
PLYWOOD
Pricing was also flat to finish out the year. Activity in late December allowed mills to push order files into mid January. There is a good chance we are sitting at the bottom with more upside than downside risk.
| PLYWOOD (STD) | DECEMBER 28, 2023 | NOVEMBER 30, 2023 | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5 (3/8) | $632 | $632 | 0 |
| 12.5 (1/2) | $843 | $843 | 0 |
| 15.5 (5/8) | $1,053 | $1,053 | 0 |
| 18.5 (3/4) | $1,264 | $1,264 | 0 |
| 25.5 (1) | $1,908 | $1,908 | 0 |
Framing Lumber Composite Price
DECEMBER 28, 2023 LUMBER MARKET REPORT HIGHLIGHTS:
- Framing lumber saw the typical holiday distractions with a quieter pace throughout the week.
- Western S-P-F traders saw increases that moderated throughout the holidays.
- Lumber futures experienced a loss after the holidays.
- The stud lumber market had a slower pace through the week.
| This Week | Last Week | Year Ago | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FRAMING LUMBER COMPOSITE PRICE | $521 | $520 | $551 |
| 2×4 #2&BTR KD Western S-P-F | $581 | $573 | $555 |
| 2×6 #2&BTR KD Western S-P-F | $521 | $513 | $669 |
| 2x4x9′ Studs | $570 | $563 | $555 |
| 2x6x9′ Studs | $578 | $584 | $789 |
| 2×10 #2&BTR KD Western S-P-F | $642 | $520 | $870 |
2020-2023 FRAMING LUMBER COMPOSITE PRICE
Structural Panel Composite Price
DECEMBER 28, 2023 PANEL MARKET REPORT HIGHLIGHTS:
- OSB supply remains tight through the holiday week.
- Prices held firm across North America.
- Western plywood post-Christmas sales were slow.
- Canadian plywood prices were flat with little trading during the week.
| This Week | Last Week | Year Ago | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ORIENTED STRAND COMPOSITE | $568 | $571 | $392 |
| 3/8″ 4×8 OSB | $570 | $570 | $365 |
| 23/32″ 4×8 OSB T&G | $820 | $820 | $655 |
| 3/8″ 4×8 Spruce Plywood | $632 | $632 | $753 |
2020-2023 ORIENTED STRAND BOARD COMPOSITE PRICE
*All Pricing is in CAD