OCTOBER 2025 BUILDING MATERIAL MARKET REFLECTION

Building Material Market Overview

Mills continue to announce production curtailments in response to the 45% duty and tariff on U.S. exports. However, soft demand has kept supply ahead of demand, limiting the impact. Pricing is beginning to erode as mills and wholesalers adjust strategies to stimulate buying. Further curtailments are expected as mills work to rebalance supply with current demand.

Canada Housing Starts

Western SPF lumber:  Pricing trended upward overall for the month, though some downward pressure emerged at the end of October, signaling potential softening ahead.

OSB: The market remains balanced, with supply and demand in equilibrium. Pricing has held steady for the past 12 weeks, though the final Panel print of October showed a slight softening.

Plywood: Strong early-month sales drove overall price increases in October. Pricing held firm through the remainder of the month as mills leaned on extended order files pushing into November.

EWP supply conditions remain stable for both Joist and LVL with no reported disruptions or shortages.

Building Materials: The supply chain continues to remain consistent with material availability and lead times, outside of the occasional logistical delay.

Looking Through the Crystal Ball

Market uncertainty persists as mills continue to announce production curtailments in response to the combined 45% duty and tariff on U.S. exports. Despite these supply-side adjustments, demand remains muted, and pricing is beginning to soften.

Further curtailments are expected as mills attempt to align production with current demand. Until demand improves, pricing will likely remain under pressure.

Lumber Forecast

Production curtailments and selective cutbacks have helped mills manage inventory and maintain list pricing. However, slowing demand and a fading market reaction to the recent 10% tax increase are creating headwinds. Notably, West Fraser reported a Q3 loss of US$204 million, following a US$24 million loss in Q2—highlighting the financial strain across the sector.

Continued pricing pressure is expected until the market finds equilibrium between supply and demand.

OSB Forecast

The OSB market remains stable with limited downside risk at current pricing levels. While there are no strong indicators of upward movement, both availability and pricing have held steady, offering a degree of predictability.

After 12 weeks of stable pricing, a slight downward adjustment at the end of October has introduced uncertainty into the market.

FRAMING LUMBER

OSB

OSB: The market remains balanced, with supply and demand in equilibrium. Pricing has held steady for the past 12 weeks, though the final Panel print of October showed a slight softening.

PLYWOOD

Plywood: Strong early-month sales drove overall price increases in October. Pricing held firm through the remainder of the month as mills leaned on extended order files pushing into November.

OCTOBER 31, 2025 LUMBER MARKET REPORT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Framing lumber market remained soft as economic uncertainty and weak demand kept buyers cautious,
  despite a rate cut and seasonal supply adjustments.
• Western S-P-F prices continued to slide as supply outpaced demand, with buyers hesitant to meet mill
  offers and futures losses further dampening market confidence.
• Lumber Futures continued their steep decline, bringing down trader confidence as cash prices weakened,
  particularly for Canadian species.
• Stud lumber sales remained slow across most regions as oversupply pressured prices downward. With
  generally weak demand, only a few trims and grades showed modest gains.

OCTOBER 31, 2025 PANEL MARKET REPORT HIGHLIGHTS:

• OSB markets remained weak with prices mostly flat.
• Seasonal factors and sufficient contract volumes kept buyers on the sidelines and mills struggled to
  move excess supply.
• Western plywood demand was mostly steady with minimal price movement, as mills held firm on
  pricing.
• Canadian plywood sales across Canada remained slow and steady, with prices holding firm despite
  weak December demand in the East and competitive U.S. supply pressures in the West.

*All Pricing is in CAD